Mikhail Makarov
The firearms sector could be more active than normal on Monday after the assassination attempt on Donald Trump. The presidential candidate said he is “fine,” but a bystander at the rally was killed. An investigation is taking place into how a gunman with an AR-style rifle was able to get into an elevated position to take multiple shots.
Election years have historically seen extra volatility for firearm stocks, particularly during the three or four months just ahead of the election date. Investors have taken positions in the sector due to the increased or decreased risk of firearm legislation, or the expectation of heightened consumer demand. The recent increased probability of Donald Trump winning the presidency and the Republicans sweeping Congress (based on the PredictIt betting market and UK bookmakers) could also impact how investors view the firearms sector in the near term.
Gun sales have been declining since the peak year of 2020. In 2024, about 1.3 million guns have been sold per month, in comparison to 1.4 million guns sold per month in 2023.
Stocks that have reacted at some point in the past in the first few trading sessions after significant shooting incidents in the U.S. include (despite varying exposure levels to the firearm industry) Smith & Wesson (NASDAQ:SWBI), Sturm Ruger (NYSE:RGR), Vista Outdoor (VSTO), Sportsman’s Warehouse (SPWH), Ammo (POWW), ammunition manufacturer Olin Corporation (OLN), outdoors retailer American Outdoor Brands (AOUT), hunting gear seller Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS), gunfire locator firm SoundThinking (SSTI), and retailer Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO).
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