It will come as little surprise to American consumers that the price of food has increased substantially since 2019. Inflation fueled by expansive monetary and fiscal policy, exacerbated by supply chain snarls that caused demand to outstrip supply, has driven up food prices by roughly 13.5% since 2019, making this July 4th barbecue the most expensive ever.
The good news is that food prices are beginning to moderate after peaking in September 2022, but prices remain stubbornly high for most staples, with beef prices up 35% and eggs 203% more expensive from 2019.
In their annual study, the American Farm Bureau Federation found that a typical cookout this July 4th will cost 5% more from 2023 and 30% more from 2019 at $71.22 for a party of 10. Limited supply of beef and a citrus greening outbreak in Florida and California will make hamburgers and lemonade particularly more expensive, with both registering double-digit, year-over-year gains of 11% and 12%, respectively.
Of the 12 items on a typical barbecue menu, only three items are cheaper this year than last. The price of two pounds of chicken is down 4% as mitigation efforts after the bird flu epidemic in 2022 has increased hatchlings and bird weights.
Potato salad will also be less expensive with the cost of two pounds of potatoes down 17% as production recovers from weather-related impacts, at least temporarily. A severe drought last year in California, unusual weather patterns in Idaho, and a fungus outbreak in eastern Canada has resulted in a gap between the stored crop from 2023 and the 2024 season crop due to heavy rain that delayed planting.
Soft drinks are also cheaper from last year (-3.4%) but are still 223% higher from 5 years ago when the average cost of a 2 liter bottle of soda was just $1.57.
Unfortunately, much of the holiday menu will cost consumers a bit more with a six-pack of beer up 3.4%, ice cream and hamburger buns up 7%, an 8% price hike in the price of pork chops and potato chips, and 2% higher prices for pork and beans and chocolate chip cookies.
The good news? Fireworks are 5% to 10% cheaper.