The S&P 500 could reach 6,000 by YE, but then drop 20% two years later – Stifel

The S&P 500 (SP500) could reach 6,000 by the end of 2024 before plunging as much as 20% by 2026, according to Stifel, Nicolaus & Co.’s Barry Bannister in a note.

In a note to investors, Bannister said that the S&P 500 (SP500) could reach the 6,000 mark before the end of the year, but by the middle of 2026, the index could go back to around 4,800, down 20%. The index is currently up 14.65% year-to-date, and up 25.27% from a year ago.

Bannister said he expects it to gain an additional 10% by the end of the year, although his official year-end target for the S&P 500 (SP500) has it at 4,750, implying a 13% loss from today. He said that “timing is everything,” and that “we are aware that investors may be in full-fledged bubble/mania mode which looks past our concerns.”

According to Bloomberg, the average year-end target among strategists on Wall Street is about 5,200. For perspective, Evercore ISI has a 6,000 target and J.P. Morgan has a 4,200 call.

“The weakening of Bitcoin (BTC-USD) signals an imminent S&P 500 (SP500) summer correction and consolidation phase,” Bannister concluded in the note. “The correction we expect in risk assets is furthered by our view that the Fed shifts away from its current cautious dovishness as inflation remains high.”