The yield curve between the U.S. 2-Year Treasury yield (US2Y) and the U.S. 10-Year yield (US10Y) has narrowed to its tightest point in two months on Tuesday, as the longer-end US10Y continues to rise at a much faster pace than the shorter-end US2Y.
The inversion between the US2Y and US10Y currently hovers at -28 basis points, but just last Tuesday that was at -50 basis points. So investors have seen a rapid closing of the gap in a noticeably short period of time.
Since last Tuesday’s open, the US10Y has jumped up 21 basis points to 4.44% from 4.23%. The US2Y is unchanged over the same period at 4.72%.
The yield curve between the two instruments has now been inverted for almost two years to the day, as the initial inversion took place back on July 6, 2022, and has yet to cross back to positive.
Regarding the latest moves in the curve, Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor at Allianz, stated: “The recent move in US yields has all been about the longer end reacting to domestic political developments; and rather than a change of view on the growth outlook, it is talk of a higher probability of bigger multiyear fiscal deficits, public debt and, therefore, government bond issuance.”
For investors that are closely watching the moves in the yield curve, they may look to further analyze Treasury focused exchange-traded funds and other fixed income ETFs as a proxy investment. See some popular listed funds below:
Treasury ETFs: (TLT), (TLH), (IEF), (IEI), (SHY), (SGOV), (SCHO), and (BIL).
Bond ETFs: (AGG), (BND), (VCIT), (MUB), (MBB), (JNK), (LQD), (HYG), and (TIP).
Moreover, see how other yields trade across the entire yield curve here.