Business growth just got a massive vote of confidence from America’s biggest CEOs, and the hiring shift that’s been missing for two years is finally showing up in the numbers. Here’s what the latest data actually tells us and why it changes the game for 2026.
The Business Roundtable’s CEO Economic Outlook Index climbed to 94 in the third quarter of 2026. That’s its fifth consecutive quarterly increase and the highest reading since 2022. The index sits well above 50, the threshold between expansion and contraction, and way above its historic average of 83. CEOs of America’s largest companies are signaling confidence that could reshape the entire job market. And honestly, it’s about time.
Why CEO Confidence Is Finally Translating Into Business Growth
For much of the past year, there was this weird split in the economy. Companies were planning massive capital investments while simultaneously saying they didn’t need to hire many workers. The bet was that AI and new technology could fuel business growth without adding headcount. That bet is now being revised.
The latest survey shows the hiring index jumped seven points to 58, just shy of its long run average of 61. About 36% of CEOs expect employment to rise over the next six months. Thirty seven percent expect no change. And only 28% expect cuts. Compare that to last quarter when the split was 30/40/30. The shift is real and it’s happening fast.
Sales expectations held at a blazing 129, with 83% of CEOs forecasting higher revenue. Capital spending plans rose to 96, well above the historic average of 77. This isn’t cautious optimism. This is executives putting serious money behind their conviction that business growth is accelerating across the board.
The AI Factor Driving Business Growth Across Every Sector
Here’s where the story gets even more interesting. Bloomberg Intelligence data shows that every single sector in the S&P 500 is expected to deliver earnings growth in the third quarter. That hasn’t happened since 2021 when corporate America was emerging from the pandemic slump. The common thread tying it all together? AI spending.
Artificial intelligence isn’t just a tech story anymore. It’s flowing through every corner of the economy. Retail, healthcare, energy, finance, manufacturing. The benefits of AI investment are finally reaching companies that aren’t Silicon Valley darlings. This broad based business growth is exactly what the economy needed to prove the AI boom isn’t just a bubble concentrated in a handful of mega cap stocks.
But let’s be real about what’s also happening. Tech leaders’ median compensation jumped 45% from 2021 to $2.6 million. That’s a clear signal about where demand is hottest. Companies are willing to pay serious money for people who can navigate this AI transition, whether they’re running engineering teams or figuring out how to integrate these tools into existing workflows.
The Hiring Shift That Changes Everything for Business Growth
The most important number in the entire survey might be the one buried in the details. Cisco CEO Chuck Robbins, who chairs the Business Roundtable, said the results reflect “the resilience of the U.S. economy” but cautioned that affordability pressures remain a challenge for businesses and families. That tension between corporate confidence and consumer anxiety is where the real story lives.
Remember, the Federal Reserve is staring down a potential rate hike. Traders put the odds at 58% ahead of the September meeting after August employment data showed 162,000 jobs added and unemployment holding at 4.1%. But here’s the catch: 98% of those new jobs went to women, and much of the growth was in lower wage sectors like food service and home health care.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics expects total employment to grow only 3.5% between 2025 and 2035, down from the prior decade’s 10.9%. That’s a structural shift, not a temporary blip. Companies are growing their top lines with AI and automation while keeping headcount relatively flat. The business growth is real, but the jobs picture is more complicated than the headline numbers suggest.
What Smart Companies Are Doing With This Business Growth Moment
The solopreneur story is exploding right now. Danny Postma built HeadshotPro, an AI headshot generator, completely alone. He’s generating $3.6 million in annual recurring revenue without a single employee. Maor Shlomo launched Base44 as a solo founder in early 2025 and sold it to Wix for $80 million a few months later. The assumption that scale requires massive overhead is being torn apart.
Nearly 30 million solopreneurs are building serious businesses in America today. A survey of 603 of them found that 89% are already using AI or actively planning to. The most successful aren’t treating AI as optional. They’re applying it to everything from customer acquisition to product development.
Meanwhile, the companies that are hiring are changing their approach. Meta partnered with CBRE on a five week program that guarantees a job upon completion. The federal government is pushing apprenticeship programs harder than ever. And trade schools are becoming more popular as white collar jobs shrink slightly while blue collar roles pick up speed.
AI agents are already replacing entire sales development teams at companies like Salesforce. That’s not a future scenario. It’s happening right now and forcing companies to rethink what business growth looks like when the traditional hiring playbook no longer applies.
The Real Business Growth Opportunity Ahead
The opportunity here is huge for companies willing to adapt. CEO confidence is high. Capital spending is accelerating. Sales expectations are through the roof. But the winners will be the ones who figure out how to combine AI driven efficiency with genuine human talent.
The data from this quarter’s survey makes one thing clear: business growth in 2026 isn’t about choosing between people and technology. It’s about building organizations smart enough to use both effectively. The CEOs who get that balance right won’t just ride the current wave. They’ll define what the next decade of corporate growth looks like.
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